Archive for the ‘Money’ Category

h1

The Cost of Economic Protectionism…

March 8, 2009

Now that times are getting bad, protectionist sentiment seems to raging all over the world. Everywhere you look, there are calls to “buy American”, “buy Canadian”, and “buy local”. The economic stimulus package that recently passed in the U.S. Senate also originally contained a buy American requirement for receiving funds. Hmm…

At its core, protectionism is based on the feeling that it is better to buy goods and services produced locally rather than produced far away. The rationale is that if I spend my money locally, it’s more likely to then be spent at other local businesses, including potentially my own. Or more generally, it means preferring to employ my fellow countrymen rather than foreigners. After all, we have to protect our own first, right? Well, before you jump on the “buy American” bandwagon, just make sure you understand its costs first…

The standard of living for those of us living in the western world has dramatically improved over the last hundred years. Today we have more books, clothes, iPods, big screen TVs, and cars than our grandparents would have imagined possible. We also have bigger houses, we work shorter hours, and we often have health coverage and pensions. We, on average, have a much more comfortable standard of living than those living a hundred years ago. So how did we achieve such levels of prosperity?

  1. Huge breakthroughs in manufacturing technology and materials
  2. Efficient global shipping & transportation
  3. Government deficits and borrowing from our children
  4. Outsourcing labor to emerging economies

People like to complain about their jobs going overseas and protectionists may argue about the benefits of outsourcing, but it’s quite straightforward if you think about it.

Labor costs, just like everything else in free markets, are driven by supply and demand. If you’re offering your services at a cost of $40,000 a year, and someone else is offering the same services at a cost of $4,000 a year, what do you think is going to happen? As long as there are enough people willing to do the job for $4,000 a year, eventually no company (that wants to remain solvent) will be willing to pay $40,000 for that job anymore.

And outsourcing isn’t the only reason why the value of a job can drop. The same thing happened with automation in factories – millions of jobs were destroyed and replaced by cheaper machine labor. And the refrain was the same: machines are bad, they put people out of work – we must protect our good paying jobs.

You might call outsourcing labor to emerging economies exploitation, but then it becomes a moral debate. The fact is, if you can pay someone overseas (or build a machine) to produce goods for you at a fraction of what it would cost to produce locally, the economy will benefit because companies are able to do more with less.

The mistake protectionists make is to think that they can somehow prevent this natural revaluing of jobs; that somehow we can pretend that a job is magically still worth $40,000 a year when it’s not. In order to artificially “protect” domestic jobs you can do a couple of things. You can subsidize domestic production, or you can tax or add tariffs to foreign products. But both options reduce the society’s wealth, and thus standard of living, because it protects less efficient methods of production and puts that cost onto the society. Does anyone think it’s a good idea to tax machine-created products, or subsidize manual labor over machine labor?

Protectionism often seems more interested in protecting the effort associated with producing goods. But don’t forget, the point of the economy is not to create jobs for people; it’s to produce stuff. And the only reason to work is to have money to buy that stuff. And despite many decades of outsourcing, we don’t seem to be running out of jobs yet. People get retrained and find new jobs.

There may be legitimate political reasons to endorse protectionism, like avoiding dependence on less than friendly foreign regimes, but there aren’t good economic ones.

[Content © 2009 SorryToConfuseYou.com, All Rights Reserved.]

h1

The "Wealthy" Barber

March 1, 2009

Lotto Ticket

I saw a local news story a little while ago about a 70 year-old barber winning a $32 million lottery jackpot. Apparently he and one of his customers had been playing the lottery together for 35 years.

My first thought was: wow, I bet he wished he had won the lottery 35 years ago instead…

My second thought was: wow, how many people are out there wasting their money playing the lottery for 35 years and not winning?

Playing the lottery is an attractive thing in that anyone, at any time, can win it big. It’s the great equalizer; the great hope; the great fraud… I find it sad really, the false hope that these lotteries generate.

There’s even a whole industry built around "helping" you improve your odds of winning the lottery. Whether it’s magic mathematical systems or divine inspiration, there are hundreds of web sites willing to take your money in order to let the government take your money. For example, one system I saw boasts:

"Win more than every 8 out of 10 times – guaranteed"
"The secret to real lotto system winning success that no other lottery system tells you about."
"Discover the lotto winning solution that really works!"

Brutal! They even offer an affiliate program to ensure that they have an army of people producing "unbiased" testimonials to drown out unhappy customers.

Bottom line, there are only 3 groups getting rich off of lotteries:

  • The government (who takes half the ticket price)
  • The scam-artists who sell these magic "systems" to "help" you win
  • The store clerks who steal their customer’s winning tickets

The odds of winning the grand prize in your lifetime is, at best, something like 1 in 4,000 (1 in 14,000,000 x 35 years x 52 weeks x twice a week) – obviously it depends on which lottery you play. By the way, the odds of being struck by lightning in your lifetime is around 1 in 5,000. Hmm…

If the barber and his friend had invested the $3 they spent twice a week, for 35 years, adjusted for inflation, it could have been worth about $35,000 today. Obviously $32 million is much better, but for the 99.975% of people that will never win the jackpot in their lifetime, $35,000 is better than zero.

In fact, if you invest just $30 a week for 35 years (like some people spend on lottery tickets), you could have a pretty good retirement nest egg of something like $175,000+.

So, how do you win at the lottery? You don’t play…

[Content © 2009 SorryToConfuseYou.com, All Rights Reserved.]

h1

What Will Drive Markets Higher (or Lower)?

November 9, 2008

What drives the price of stocks on a day-to-day (or year-to-year) basis? What causes the price to go up or down? A lot of people talk about “cash flow”, and money flowing in and out of the market. For example, it’s not uncommon to hear snippets on the news like:

Liquid capital could come back and fuel a rally.”

There is a lot of money waiting on the sidelines.”

I think there’s enough cash on the sideline that any pullback is being greeted with buying.

But does cash really drive markets? Let’s see…

1) Say Bob has a comic book that he bought for $5, and $15 cash for buying other comic books. Jim has $20 cash for buying comic books.

  Cash Comics Total
Bob $15 $5 $20
Jim $20 $0 $20
Total $35 $5 $40

2) Jim offers to buy Bob’s comic book for $10 because he thinks that it’s going to be more valuable in the future. Bob agrees to the price. The comic is now worth $10, and Bob makes $5 on the deal.

  Cash Comics Total
Bob $25 $0 $25
Jim $10 $10 $20
Total $35 $10 $45

3) A few days later, Bob regrets selling the comic and really wants it back, so he begs Jim to sell it back to him. Jim reluctantly agrees, and sells it back to him for $25. The comic is now worth $25, and Jim made $15 between the two transactions.

  Cash Comics Total
Bob $0 $25 $25
Jim $35 $0 $35
Total $35 $25 $60

4) The next day, the comic publisher announces that it will run another printing of Bob’s comic because it’s so popular. Now anyone can buy that comic for $5.

  Cash Comics Total
Bob $0 $5 $5
Jim $35 $0 $35
Total $35 $5 $40

Notice two things:

  • The total “cash on the sideline” doesn’t change. Every time a transaction takes place, cash moves, but the total cash available doesn’t change.
  • The system is not a zero-sum game – it’s possible for everyone to win (or lose) at least for some period of time.

This is exactly what happens in the stock market every day. There are a fixed number of shares in the stock market (except when there’s a secondary offering, or an IPO). A rally doesn’t actually “use up” (nor require) cash sitting on sideline. Cash moves around from person to person, but doesn’t “enter” or “leave” the market except when its owner decides to reallocate that cash for some other purpose. Hmm…

So what happens when a bunch of people want to move a bunch of cash from other asset classes into the stock market? Back to the above example: if Ted has $1,000 and wants to get into the comic business, he might buy Bob’s comic for $50 (or not). His decision isn’t based on the fact he has money burning a hole in his pocket. His decision is based on whether he can buy the comic at a lower price than that at which he can later sell it – i.e. it’s all about sentiment. If Ted doesn’t believe that he can make money buying the comic at $50, regardless of how much cash he has, he’d be an idiot to pay that much for it…

The same thing happens in the stock market. The only reason to buy something is if you believe you can make money in whatever timeframe you’re looking at – it doesn’t matter how much cash you have. Prices rise when greed and optimism are prevalent. Prices fall when fear and pessimism rule the day. All cash does is provide liquidity for this to happen efficiently (“sideline” cash has actually been rising for years by the way). Don’t worry – there will always be more than enough sideline cash looking for opportunities regardless of the state of the market. The thing that changes on a day to day basis is sentiment.

So when some talking head says, “the markets will rally when cash comes into the market”, what he really means to say “the markets will rally when optimism comes into the market”.

[Content © 2008 SorryToConfuseYou.com, All Rights Reserved.]

h1

Too Much Moral Hazard…

October 28, 2008

Much of the financial mess we’re experiencing has been attributed to financial derivatives (like credit default swaps), or as Warren Buffet describes them – financial weapons of mass destruction.

But why are derivatives such a problem? Is it that they’re opaque and hard to value? Is it that they’re kept “off-the-books”? Is it that they’re a vehicle  for speculation? Well, maybe… But I think the bigger problem is that they led to moral hazard in the financial industry.

What is moral hazard? Moral hazard is essentially the premise that:

“An individual or institution insulated from risk may behave differently from the way it would if it were fully exposed to the risk.”

Would you buy the same expensive car if you didn’t have insurance? Would you speed if you knew there was a cop on every corner? Would you steal a million dollars if you knew the worst that would happen would be a week in jail? Balancing risk and reward plays a big part in our decision making process.

Why were all those banks giving away subprime mortgages to unqualified borrowers? Because they could… Derivatives can be used as a form of insurance. The banks got to reap all the rewards and the record profits coming from issuing those mortgages, and got to delegate all the risk to someone else through the use of credit default swaps. With such a system in place, it’s no wonder they indulged…

Now that the worst case scenario has come to pass, are all these institutions going to suffer the consequences? No, because they’re “too big to fail”. The government is taking billions of bad decisions off their hands – reinforcing moral hazard even further.

What’s the solution to this mess? Both U.S. presidential candidates are talking about more government regulation. But does that really stop moral hazard? Probably not… Bureaucracy and regulation don’t get rid of moral hazard – only full exposure to risk does.

Would the upper management of these financial institutions have been so reckless if they were personally responsible and accountable for the outcomes? No way. All the CEOs got paid their millions regardless of whether they drove their companies into the ground or not. What was their incentive to limit risk?

Why did our grandparents pay off their houses as quickly as possible, and save every penny they could? The prospect of literally being out on the streets with absolutely nothing was a scary proposition.

These days, we have unemployment benefits, homeless shelters, bankruptcy protection, and insurance on just about everything, leading to moral hazard that’s rampant not just in our financial industry, but throughout our society in general. I’m not suggesting we necessarily get rid of these things, but we need to understand the costs.

If we want to avoid future financial calamities, we need to take a hard look at the type of behavior we’re encouraging. Free markets can lead to a positive, self-reinforcing cycle, but only when there is full exposure to risk.

[Content © 2008 SorryToConfuseYou.com, All Rights Reserved.]